Inferactive data analysis

We describe inferactive data analysis, so-named to denote an interactive approach to data analysis with an emphasis on inference after data analysis. Our approach is a compromise between Tukey's exploratory and confirmatory data analysis allowing also for Bayesian data analysis. We see this as a useful step in concrete providing tools (with statistical guarantees) for current data scientists. The basis of inference we use is (a conditional approach to) selective inference, in particular its randomized form. The relevant reference distributions are constructed from what we call a DAG-DAG—a Data Analysis Generative DAG, and a selective change of variables formula is crucial to any practical implementation of inferactive data analysis via sampling these distributions. We discuss a canonical example of an incomplete cross-validation test statistic to discriminate between black box models, and a real HIV dataset example to illustrate inference after making multiple queries on data.     

全球价值链背景下加工贸易企业升级路径分析

金融危机以来国际贸易保护主义色彩浓郁，中国内部粗放型经济增长方式存在一定的不可持续性和人口红利开始逐渐消失，中国加工贸易嵌入发达国家主导的全球价值链低附加值和低生产率问题引起了学者的注意。随着外部贸易环境、国内新常态要素禀赋结构的变化和深化供给侧结构性改革的需要，推动加工贸易企业升级已经成为中国经济结构调整的一个重要部分。通过分析中国加工贸易的起源、发展和现状，描述全球价值链背景下加工贸易的若干特征和“低端锁定”问题，引出了融资约束对企业经营决策、出口行为以及企业全球价值链上地位的影响，并围绕以生产过程、产品升级和功能升级为主的产业内升级和以劳动密集型向技术密集型转变为特征的产业间升级两个角度，提出了中国加工贸易企业在全球价值链上攀升的路径。研究认为，着重强调人力资本积累、本土企业技术外溢的吸收能力以及自主研发能力的培养，同时结合国际产能合作和“一带一路”倡议等现实背景，实现东西双向开放，塑造以我为主的包容性的区域价值链和国内价值链等，是中国加工贸易企业升级的路径和新机遇。     

国有企业并购重组中政府角色定位的偏差与矫正

在供给侧结构性改革中,国有企业的并购重组与混合所有制改革同步进行,达到优化产业结构、淘汰落后产能的目的。但政府存在角色定位偏差问题,仍有较强的政策指导与干预冲动。在深化供给侧结构性改革进程中,政府应将角色定位于政策指引者、信息中介者、服务提供者及监督监管者,同时强化制度创新,破除阻碍企业并购重组的旧机制,健全完善规章制度。     

Resolving complex community problems: Applying collective leadership and Kotter's change model to wicked problems within social system networks

How does collective leadership within social networks resolve chronic and complex problems common to communities? Unfortunately, sometimes it does not, but when it does, the outcome may be truly extraordinary. We use a case study approach to explain how one Midwest community within the USA applied collective leadership within a community network to reduce teen births. It took ten years of what many identified as provocative media campaigns and comprehensive sex education programs to reduce teen births by 65%, significantly exceeding the stated goal. Using Kotter's change model as a backdrop, powerful strategies and provocative creativity reveal courageous leadership within a social network of diverse people and organizations focused on improving the social well being of their community.     

Taking the longer view: Explaining Multicultural London English and Multicultural Paris French

The article explores the perplexing outcomes of comparative research projects in London and Paris on language change in multilingual areas of the cities populated by large numbers of recent immigrants with very diverse language backgrounds. In London, as in many other northern European cities, language contact on such a large scale has resulted in the emergence of a “multiethnolect”: a repertoire of innovative linguistic forms used by young people of all ethnicities, including monolingual non‐immigrant speakers. In Paris, however, there was no such repertoire. I propose four factors that are necessary for a multiethnolect to emerge and that explain why similar processes of population movement, immigration, and globalization have produced such different linguistic outcomes in London and Paris. These factors remind us that language evolution, like language use, is constrained not only by the social characteristics of individuals but also by the socio‐cultural historical contexts in which individuals live.     

Systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia: activities of theater and radio station during the Soviet era

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia during the Soviet era in Bayan-Ölgiy Province, focusing on the music collection and preservation activities led by a theater and radio station. Bayan-Ölgiy is located far from Ulaanbaatar; adjacent to Kazakhstan, Xinjiang (China), and Russia. Using three–years participation observation, this study identified three activities in promoting the systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia: importing musical knowledge and technology from the Soviet Kazakh Republic (1950–1960s); establishing a radio station and audio archive following the Sino-Soviet split (1960s–1980s); collections of Kazakh music in Mongolia (1960s–1980s). These activities were driving forces for Kazakhs to claim their identity in the post-socialist period in Mongolia. Diener found that Kazakh culture in Mongolia was preserved thanks to the geographic isolation of Bayan-Ölgiy. However, this study clearly identifies international relations and Bayan-Ölgiy’s strategic location as drivers of systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia.     

Digital learning across cultures: an account of activity theory

ABSTRACT

This paper explores a teaching and learning process as it unfolds in an online offshore classroom. The paper reports on teaching and learning narratives distilled from different cultures, namely the cultures of educators and students in the context of digital learning environments. Drawing on activity theory as a conceptual framework to analyse the narrative, we employ self-study as a methodological tool for capturing the dynamism and complexities that unravel in intercultural and technology-enabled teaching activities. The framework explores the relationships, tensions and opportunities of diverse activity elements that constitute the design and delivery of digital pedagogies. In the networked intercultural system, sustaining the position of activity elements and the specific relational circuit that they institutionalise is a key task for understanding digital technologies as an influential tool for effective learning and teaching practices. We argue that seeing the digital platform from the perspective of its role in creating dynamic interrelationships in a complex activity system is one way to move beyond the cultural confines of any particular element in the system.     

The paradox of illicit economies: survival,resilience, and the limits of development and drug policy orthodoxy

ABSTRACT

The illicit drug crops opium and coca are conventionally regarded as sources of instability, an ‘evil’ that breeds fragility and violence. Fragile states are supposed to be most vulnerable to their production and consequent harms. Yet by looking into the local contexts of the world’s leading opium and coca producers – Afghanistan, Myanmar, Colombia and Bolivia – these illicit crops are found to also be sources of stability, even drivers of economic growth. They enable marginalized communities and territories abandoned by the state to be reinserted into national and global markets. Within so-called ‘fragile’ and conflict-affected areas are displaced and dispossessed households adopting innovative and unorthodox strategies for coping and survival in changing and insecure environments. This paper maps out an approach, useful for examining the resilience that has emerged amidst violence and uncertainty in illicit-crop-producing territories, and which can hopefully tackle the continuing disconnect between drugs and development policy.     

Fiddling while the planet burns? COP25 in perspective

ABSTRACT

With fires, storms, social protests, and climate strikes sweeping the world, 2019 should have been a tipping point in how the world responds to global heating. This was the backdrop to the COP25 climate change summit which took place in Madrid in December 2019. This paper assesses the outcomes of the meeting and the path towards the critically important meeting in Glasgow at the end of 2020. It analyses and explains the key points of contention over levels of ambition, the rules which should govern global carbon markets and sensitive issues such as loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change. The analysis is situated within a broader geopolitical and economic context of right-wing populism, deepening forms of marketization and financialization of responses to climate change and against a background of a world increasingly feeling the effects of the climate crisis.     

To what extent is social security spending associated with enhanced firm-level performance? A case study of SMEs in Indonesia

Although the relationship between social protection and enterprise performance is much debated in the literature, evidence is particularly limited in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises in developing economies. Using census data from 2010 to 2014, this article examines how the provision of social security influenced business performance in Indonesia. The author finds that increased social security spending of 10 per cent is associated with a per-worker revenue gain of up to 2 per cent. Moreover, profits are not found to decrease with increased social protection coverage, suggesting that increasing worker benefits may be a worthwhile business investment.